Conservatives Hold Slight Lead while NDP Support Slips

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According to Harris/Decima Chairman Allan Gregg “While the limits of our discipline don't allow us to make definitive declarations on such matters, it would be a pretty good guess to suggest that the NDP have fallen victim to their vacillation on the long gun registry. They have dropped 6 points since spring -- losing almost one-third of their support over that period of time. This is the lowest they have polled since December 2009 and leaves them virtually tied with the Green Party in central Canada. While this decline is evident across the country, it is most precipitous among women -- and especially non-rural women -- and in the Metropolitan Toronto area, where the loss since April has been in double digits. This profile mirrors our historic understanding of a major segment of the NDP core and suggests that it may their most ardent adherents that are leaving them.
It is also interesting to note that this decline is not benefiting the Liberals exclusively. In fact, with the NDP under 15% of the popular vote, it is perhaps telling that the Liberals cannot crack 30%.”

  • Nationally, over the last two weeks, the Conservatives hold a three point lead. The Conservatives stand at 33%, to 30% for the Liberals, 14% for the NDP, 11% for the Greens and 10% for the BQ.
  • In Quebec, the BQ remains well in front. Here, they stand at 38%, to 25% for the Liberals, 14% for the Conservatives, 12% for the Greens and 9% for the NDP.
  • In Ontario, the race between the Liberals and Conservatives remains neck and neck. The Liberals stand at 37%, to 35% for the Conservatives, 14% for the NDP and 12% for the Greens.
  • In BC, the Conservatives are ahead by ten points. Here, the Conservatives stand at 37%, to 27% for the Liberals, 20% for the NDP and 14% for the Greens.
  • The Conservatives remain the dominant party on the Prairies.
  • In Manitoba and Saskatchewan the Conservatives are at 42%, compared to 24% for the Liberals, 23% for the NDP and 8% for the Greens.
  • In Alberta the Conservatives hold 61% support, to 21% for the Liberals, 8% for the NDP and 7% for the Greens.
  • In Atlantic Canada the Liberals and Conservatives are in a dead heat. The Liberals stand at 34%, to 33% for the Conservatives, 23% for the NDP and 8% for the Greens.

These data were gathered through teleVox, Harris/Decima’s national telephone omnibus survey over two weeks between September 9 and September 19, 2010 for 2,023 completes. A sample of the same size has a margin of error of 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error are outlined below.

Atlantic - +/- 6.9%
Quebec- +/- 4.4%
Ontario- +/- 3.8%
Man/Sask- +/- 6.9%
Alberta- +/- 6.9%
BC - +/- 6.1%