Conservatives Hold Six Point Lead on Liberals

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The latest Canadian Press/Harris Decima measure of voting intention reveals:

According to Harris/Decima Chairman Allan Gregg; “For all the breathless news coverage, we have seen very little change in voter preference over the last three months. The Conservatives have been consistently somewhere between 5 and 10 points ahead of the Liberals; Ontario is too close to call; the BQ still dominates in Quebec; and BC is a competitive three party race. If all of this sounds familiar, it is because it is -- these results look remarkably like the 2006 and 2008 elections. That is a long way of saying that -- based on these numbers, and at the moment -- none of the parties have any guarantee of improving their electoral position over the results of the last two elections. If we have a third election being precipitated later this week, it therefore will be a triumph of hope (or hubris) over common sense".

  • Nationally, over the last two weeks, the Conservative lead is six points. The Conservatives stand at 34%, to 28% for the Liberals, 17% for the NDP, 10% for the BQ, and 9% for the Greens.
  • The BQ remains well in front in the province of Quebec. Here, they stand at 40%, to 19% for the Liberals, 19% for the Conservatives, 12% for the NDP, and 8% for the Greens.
  • The race in Ontario is neck and neck. The Conservatives stand at 38%, to 37% for the Liberals, 15% for the NDP, and 9% for the Greens.
  • The race is tight in British Columbia. Here, the Conservatives stand at 30%, to 26% for the NDP, 24% for the Liberals, and 17% for the Greens.
  • On the Prairies, the Conservatives remain well in front. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan the Conservatives stand at 46%, to 24% for the NDP, 20% for the Liberals, and 9% for the Greens. In Alberta, the Conservatives hold 52% support, to 22% for the Liberals, 15% for the NDP, and 7% for the Greens.
  • The Conservatives and Liberals are tied in Atlantic Canada. Here, the Conservatives and Liberals stand at 34%, to 24% for the NDP, and 4% for the Greens.

These data were gathered through teleVox, the company’s national telephone omnibus survey. The most recent data were gathered between March 10 and March 20, 2011 for 2,001 completed interviews. A sample of the same size has a margin of error of 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.