Trudeau Continues to Draw Support from Across Political Spectrum

Download Release

More than four in ten (42%) indicate they would be certain (15%) or likely (27%) to vote Liberal in the next election if Justin Trudeau were leader. Mr. Trudeau enjoys strong support in Atlantic Canada (60% certain or likely to vote Liberal), Quebec (48%), Ontario (41%) and BC (43%). Even on the Prairies, 30% of those in Alberta, and 32% of those in Manitoba and Saskatchewan say they would be certain or likely to vote Liberal in the next election if Mr. Trudeau were leader. Mr. Trudeau enjoys even support across both urban and rural areas with 42% of those in a Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) saying they’d be certain or likely to vote Liberal and 44% of those in non-CMA’s answering in kind. Mr. Trudeau’s support has risen over time. In June, 33% said they would be certain or likely to vote Liberal in the next election if he were leader, while in September this number was 36%.

 

 

  • One in five (20%) say they would be certain or likely to vote Liberal if Marc Garneau were leader. In June and September this number was 18%. There are no significant statistical differences across regions when it comes to support for Mr. Garneau, although those with household incomes exceeding $100k/year are more likely than their counterparts to say they’d be at least likely to vote for Mr. Garneau.
  • Nationally, 15% say they’d be certain or likely to vote Liberal if Martha Hall-Findlay were leader. In June, 12% said they’d be certain or likely to vote Liberal if she were leader, while in September this number stood at 10%.
  • Other potential candidates tested include; Deborah Coyne (12% certain or likely to vote Liberal), Martin Cauchon (12%), Joyce Murray (12%), David Merner (11%), David Bertschi (10%), and Jonathan Mousley (10%).

A further analysis reveals where Mr. Trudeau is able to glean support from.

 

  • Women (47%) are more likely than men (38%) to say they’re certain or likely to vote Liberal if Mr. Trudeau were leader.
  • French-speaking Canadians (46%) are more likely than English speakers (41%) to say they’re certain or likely to vote Liberal if Trudeau is leader.
  • Mr. Trudeau enjoys support across all age groups, with 41% of those under the age of 35, 44% of those between 35 and 54, and 42% of those over the age of 55 saying they’d be certain or likely to vote Liberal if he were leader.
  • Mr. Trudeau would attract support across partisan lines. Overall, 21% of Conservatives, 48% of New Democrats, 44% of Greens, and 22% of BQ supporters say they’d be certain or likely to vote Liberal if he were leader. Mr. Trudeau is attracting Green and NDP voters at a higher rate than he was in September when 36% and 38%, respectively, said they’d be certain or likely to vote Liberal if he were leader.
  • Additionally, 29% of those who would support another party say they would be certain or likely to vote Liberal if Mr. Trudeau were leader.

Each week, Harris/Decima interviews just over 1000 Canadians through teleVox, the company’s national telephone omnibus survey. The most recent data were gathered between November 15 and November 19, 2012. A sample of the same size has a margin of error of 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.